Re: Russia-Ukraine war: Is India’s fence-sitting adding to stranded students’ woes?
Highlights By Balbir Singh Sooch-Sikh Vichar Manch
1. “India's foreign policy will be severely tested, if the conflict in Ukraine becomes prolonged and ends
up creating a bipolar world”. Michael Kugelman; Deputy Director; South Asia senior associate at think
tank the Wilson Center says
2. India has had to walk a diplomatic tightrope over Ukraine in the past few days as it tried to balance
its ties with Moscow and the West: But if Washington and its European allies continue to impose severe
sanctions on Russia, India may find it tough to continue doing business with Moscow
3. Respected Sir: Is “THE AGGRESSIVE NATIONALISM” Not More Worth For Kind Consideration Now?
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FULL TEXT:
Ukraine: Why India is not criticising Russia over invasion: By Vikas Pandey: BBC News, Delhi:
https://www.bbc.com/
India has had to walk a diplomatic tightrope over Ukraine in the past few days as it tried to balance its
ties with Moscow and the West.
Delhi's first statement in the UN Security Council (UNSC) did not name any country directly but it said it
regretted that calls from the international community to give diplomacy and dialogue a chance had not
been heeded.
It, however, stopped short of criticising Russia. And before the UNSC voted on a draft UN
resolution to condemn the invasion, Delhi faced calls from Russia, the US and Ukraine "to do the
right thing".
Ukraine and Russia even issued public appeals for Delhi to take a clear stand. India chose to
abstain from the vote but a careful reading of its statement suggests that it did go a step further
and indirectly asked Moscow to respect international law.
India talked about the importance of "the UN Charter, international law, and respect for the sove
reignty and territorial integrity of states", adding that "all member states need to honour these
principles in finding a constructive way forward".
Delhi continued with its strategy as it chose to abstain when the UN General Assembly voted
overwhelmingly to demand an immediate end to the invasion of Ukraine.
The third abstention was followed by calls from senior officials in Washington to India to "take
a clear position".
India's strategy has raised questions, particularly in the West, over whether the world's largest
democracy should have taken a clearer stand.
No good options
Former Indian diplomat JN Misra says India "has bad and worse options to pick from".
"One can't tilt both ways at the same time. India has not named any country, which
shows it won't go against Moscow. India had to be subtle in picking a side and it has
done that," he adds.
There are several reasons for India's quest to find a diplomatic balance over Ukraine.
The most important are India's time-tested defence and diplomatic ties with Moscow.
The S-400 missile system is seen as crucial for India's defence needs.
Russia continues to be India's largest arms supplier even though its share has dropped
to 49% from 70% due to India's decision to diversify its portfolio and boost domestic
defence manufacturing.
Also, Russia is supplying equipment like the S-400 missile defence system which gives
India crucial strategic deterrence against China and Pakistan, and that is the reason
why it went ahead with the order despite threats of looming US sanctions.
Defence supplies matter:
Moreover, it's hard for Delhi to overlook decades of history of diplomatic co
-operation with Russia on several issues. Moscow has vetoed UNSC resolutions
over disputed Kashmir in the past to help India keep it a bilateral issue.
In this context, India appears to be following its famed strategy of non-alignment
and promoting dialogue to resolve issues.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director at think tank the Wilson Center, says India's
stand is not surprising as it's consistent with its past strategy.
He adds that Delhi doesn't "seem comfortable with what is happening in Ukraine
but it's not likely to change its stand".
"It simply can't afford to do so at the moment because of its defence and
geopolitical needs," he says. Though he adds that Delhi has chosen some strong
words in the UNSC to show it's not comfortable with the situation in Ukraine.
President Putin and PM Modi share good relations
India also has the tough task of trying to evacuate 20,000 citizens, mostly students, from
Ukraine. Former Indian diplomat Anil Triguniyat, who served in Moscow and also in Libya
where he oversaw the evacuation of Indian citizens when conflict broke out in 2011, says
safety assurances are needed from all parties in a conflict to run a successful evacuation
operation.
"India can't take a side at the risk of endangering the safety of its citizens. Moreover, it's
seeing the holistic picture which involves keeping channels open with everyone," he adds.
India has been able to get help both from Ukraine and Russia to evacuate its citizens,
specially from the heavily hit Kharkiv city. It still has hundreds of citizens, mostly students,
stuck in Ukraine and it will continue to seek cooperation from all sides.
In that sense, India is in a unique position as it's one of the few countries which has good relations both with Washington and Moscow.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken to Russian President Vladimir
Putin and Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has held talks with officials
in Washington.
Mr Modi has also held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Mr
Triguniyat says India has done well in keeping diplomatic channels open with both
sides.
"India hasn't criticised Russia directly but it's not that India has turned a blind eye
to the suffering of Ukrainians. It has adopted a balanced approach. It talked strongly about territorial integrity at the UNSC and it was clearly meant to highlight Ukraine's plight," he
added.
A temporary camp has been set up in Przemysl, Poland, for some of the hundreds
of thousands fleeing Ukraine
But if Washington and its European allies continue to impose
severe sanctions on Russia, India may find it tough to continue
doing business with Moscow.
The US seems to understand India's position at the moment but there are no
guarantees it will continue to do so.
When US President Joe Biden was recently asked about India's stand, he
didn't give a definitive answer. "We are going to have consultations with
India [over Ukraine]. We haven't resolved that fully," he said.
The issue of sanctions over the purchase of the S-400s still loom. The Countering
America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (Caatsa) was introduced in 2017 to
target Russia, Iran and North Korea with economic and political sanctions. It also
prohibits any country from signing defence deals with these nations.
Washington had not promised any waiver even before Russia invaded Ukraine, and
experts believe that the issue could become a bargaining chip between India and
the US.
Meanwhile, Moscow could use its own pressure points which include strengthening
ties with India's arch-rival Pakistan if it sees a change in Delhi's strategy.
Russia has accepted India's growing ties with the US in the past two decades but
Ukraine is a red line that it wouldn't want Delhi to cross.
(i) Mr Kugelman says such tipping points will only come if the conflict in Ukraine
becomes prolonged and ends up creating a bipolar world.
(ii) "Let's just hope it doesn't happen. But if it does, India's foreign policy will
be severely tested," he says..
“India's foreign policy will be severely tested, if the conflict in Ukraine
becomes prolonged and ends up creating a bipolar world”. Michael
Kugelman* says